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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Salford City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Notts County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Notts County 1-3 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.22 xG and Salford City 1.04 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Salford City outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 0.99 / defence 0.84 against Salford City attack 1.13 / defence 0.94, drawn from 87/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 40% | Draw 29% | Salford City 31%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 58%, Salford City 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Salford City's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.50 PPG, Salford City 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights