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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Notts County cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Oldham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Oldham 3-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.17 xG and Oldham 0.97 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Notts County beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.29 / defence 0.95 against Oldham attack 0.88 / defence 0.69, drawn from 56/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 40% | Draw 29% | Oldham 30%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 70%, Oldham 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Oldham's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.40 PPG, Oldham 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Oldham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights