🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Notts County cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Newport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Newport County 3-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 2.12 xG and Newport County 1.06 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Notts County beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.39 / defence 1.00 against Newport County attack 0.92 / defence 1.26, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 62% | Draw 20% | Newport County 18%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 49%, Newport County 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Newport County's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Newport County (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights