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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Notts County and Harrogate Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County and Harrogate Town finished level at 1-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 2.11 xG and Harrogate Town 0.97 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Notts County fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.35 / defence 0.90 against Harrogate Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 64% | Draw 20% | Harrogate Town 16%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 49%, Harrogate Town 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights