Notts County 1-0 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Notts County at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Notts County vs Harrogate Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Meadow Lane plays host to Notts County versus Harrogate Town in League Two, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Notts County have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Notts County have posted 5W 2D 3L at Meadow Lane — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Harrogate Town's overall League Two record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Harrogate Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Harrogate Town's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Notts County's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Harrogate Town's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Notts County 1W, Harrogate Town 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Notts County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Harrogate Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 66% versus Harrogate Town 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 66% | Harrogate Town 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.41 xG and Harrogate Town 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.042 / defence 0.911 | Harrogate Town attack 0.743 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.262. Data: 59 Notts County games / 59 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 50% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 23%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Harrogate Town 4.35. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 40% | Harrogate Town 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 50% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Notts County 1.41 / Harrogate Town 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.042 / def 0.911 | Harrogate Town attack 0.743 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Notts County (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Harrogate Town xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Notts County vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Harrogate Town?
Notts County 1 - 0 Harrogate Town.
Where is Notts County vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Harrogate Town part of?
Notts County vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 50% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Notts County and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Harrogate Town?
Record (2 meetings): Notts County 1W | Draws 0 | Harrogate Town 1W.
What form are Notts County and Harrogate Town in?
Notts County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Harrogate Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Notts County vs Harrogate Town?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Notts County's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Harrogate Town's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Harrogate Town's attack (0.74x) against Notts County's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.67
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.26
0.85
Harrogate Town xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
6%
18.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Notts County and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Notts County and 0.85 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Notts County come into this having played 59 games, going 24W 12D 23L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Harrogate Town sit at 1.32 PPG from 59 outings (21W 15D 23L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Harrogate Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Notts County against 1.32 for Harrogate Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Notts County's home form reads 15W 3D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Harrogate Town have taken 1.34 points per game from 29 outings (9W 12D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Notts County are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.20 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Blended
Harrogate Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 24W 12D 23L in their last 59 games (1.42 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 21W 15D 23L in their last 59 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Harrogate Town away?
Notts County's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.66 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Notts County won 3-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Notts County have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Harrogate Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Notts County
1
Draws
1
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Harrogate Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Notts County have won 4, Harrogate Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when Harrogate Town 0-2 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Harrogate Town?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Harrogate Town see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 62%, Harrogate Town 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Notts County) and 45% (Harrogate Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Harrogate Town in 31%; Harrogate Town in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Harrogate Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Notts County's games and 52% of Harrogate Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Notts County vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Notts County's matches and 45% of Harrogate Town's.
Do Notts County and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Notts County edge out Harrogate Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Harrogate Town 1-0 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.41 xG and Harrogate Town 0.85 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Harrogate Town landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.04 / defence 0.91 against Harrogate Town attack 0.74 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 50% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 23%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 66%, Harrogate Town 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.42 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.