Notts County 1-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Notts County at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Notts County vs Gillingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Notts County welcome Gillingham to Meadow Lane in League Two (matchday 25). Kick-off is Tuesday 3 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Notts County stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Notts County have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Gillingham have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gillingham's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Notts County carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Notts County have won 2, Gillingham 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Notts County 0–1 Gillingham — a Gillingham win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Notts County trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Gillingham trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 52% versus Gillingham 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 47% | Gillingham 34%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Notts County surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Gillingham have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.44 xG and Gillingham 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.126 / defence 0.854 | Gillingham attack 1.020 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.229. Data: built from Notts County's last 74 games and Gillingham's last 73.
Result probabilities: Notts County 46% | Draw 26% | Gillingham 28%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.19 | Draw 3.80 | Gillingham 3.57. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Notts County 50% (last 10 home games) | Gillingham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, matchday 25 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 46% | Draw 26% | Gillingham 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Notts County 1.44 / Gillingham 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.126 / def 0.854 | Gillingham attack 1.020 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Notts County (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Gillingham xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Notts County vs Gillingham FAQs
What time does Notts County vs Gillingham kick off?
Notts County vs Gillingham kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 3 February 2026 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Gillingham?
Notts County 1 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Notts County vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Gillingham part of?
Notts County vs Gillingham is a League Two fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 46% chance of winning, Gillingham a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Notts County and Gillingham will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Notts County vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Notts County's attack rating (1.13) and Gillingham's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Notts County's last 74 games and Gillingham's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.80
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.51
1.07
Gillingham xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
7%
15.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Notts County vs Gillingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Notts County and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Notts County and 1.07 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Notts County come into this having played 73 games, going 34W 16D 23L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 1.32 PPG from 73 outings (23W 27D 23L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Notts County on 1.62 PPG, Gillingham on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Notts County's home form reads 17W 7D 12L across their last 36 home games, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 36 away games (8W 16D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Notts County are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.08 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Current Season
Gillingham
Blended
Notts County (Home) vs Gillingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Notts County
Current Season
Gillingham
Blended
❓ Notts County vs Gillingham Form FAQs
What form are Notts County and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 34W 16D 23L in their last 73 games (1.62 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 23W 27D 23L in their last 73 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Gillingham away?
Notts County's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.61 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Notts County or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Gillingham in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 3 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Notts County's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Notts County
0
Draws
3
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Notts County vs Gillingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Gillingham?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Notts County have won 3, Gillingham have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Gillingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2026: Notts County 1-0 Gillingham.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 47%, Gillingham 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Notts County) and 31% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Gillingham in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Notts County vs Gillingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Notts County and Gillingham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Notts County's recent matches and 53% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Notts County and Gillingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Notts County's recent games and 31% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Gillingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Notts County's recent matches and 53% of Gillingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Notts County edge out Gillingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Gillingham 1-0 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 25, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.44 xG and Gillingham 1.07 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gillingham landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.13 / defence 0.85 against Gillingham attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 74/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 46% | Draw 26% | Gillingham 28%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 47%, Gillingham 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gillingham's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.62 PPG, Gillingham 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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