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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Notts County defy the odds to beat Fleetwood Town 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Fleetwood Town 1-0 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 7, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.40 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.55 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fleetwood Town landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.25 / defence 1.16 against Fleetwood Town attack 1.17 / defence 0.95, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 34% | Draw 24% | Fleetwood Town 41%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Notts County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 48%, Fleetwood Town 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.50 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights