🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Doncaster edge out Notts County 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Notts County 1-2 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 46, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.04 xG and Doncaster 1.36 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 0.95 / defence 1.01 against Doncaster attack 1.18 / defence 0.83, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 28% | Draw 29% | Doncaster 43%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 59%, Doncaster 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Doncaster's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.46 PPG, Doncaster 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Doncaster win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights