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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Colchester cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Notts County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Notts County 1-3 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.44 xG and Colchester 1.11 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Colchester outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.27 / defence 0.91 against Colchester attack 1.02 / defence 0.85, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 45% | Draw 26% | Colchester 29%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Colchester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 48%, Colchester 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Colchester's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.58 PPG, Colchester 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Colchester (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights