🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Notts County and Colchester share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County and Colchester finished level at 1-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.11 xG and Colchester 0.69 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.03 / defence 0.72 against Colchester attack 0.88 / defence 0.81, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 45% | Draw 33% | Colchester 22%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 60%, Colchester 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Colchester's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.50 PPG, Colchester 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights