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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Chesterfield defy the odds to beat Notts County 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Notts County 1-2 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.32 xG and Chesterfield 1.00 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chesterfield outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Chesterfield attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 82/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 44% | Draw 28% | Chesterfield 28%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Chesterfield win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 43%, Chesterfield 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Chesterfield's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.71 PPG, Chesterfield 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights