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Dominant Notts County run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Cheltenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Cheltenham 5-2 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.84 xG and Cheltenham 1.04 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Notts County beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cheltenham outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.23 / defence 0.91 against Cheltenham attack 0.96 / defence 1.26, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 56% | Draw 23% | Cheltenham 21%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 48%, Cheltenham 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (83 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Cheltenham's trading profile (83 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cheltenham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights