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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Notts County cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cambridge United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Cambridge United 2-0 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.97 xG and Cambridge United 0.81 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cambridge United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.38 / defence 0.98 against Cambridge United attack 0.70 / defence 1.07, drawn from 59/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 65% | Draw 21% | Cambridge United 15%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 49%, Cambridge United 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cambridge United's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Notts County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights