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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Notts County run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bradford.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Bradford 3-0 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.13 xG and Bradford 0.87 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Notts County beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bradford landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 0.94 / defence 0.80 against Bradford attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 41% | Draw 32% | Bradford 27%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 63%, Bradford 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Bradford's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.37 PPG, Bradford 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights