Northampton vs Rochdale – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Northampton at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Rochdale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rochdale make the trip to Sixfields Stadium to face Northampton in League Two, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Northampton have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sixfields Stadium, Northampton have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sixfields Stadium this season.
Rochdale (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rochdale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rochdale away from home this season: 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Northampton against 1.20 for Rochdale. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Northampton lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Northampton half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Rochdale half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 36% versus Rochdale 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Northampton 7% | Rochdale 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.23 xG and Rochdale 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.653 / defence 0.883 | Rochdale attack 0.980 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.141. Northampton's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rochdale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Northampton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Northampton games / 14 Rochdale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 40% | Draw 33% | Rochdale 28%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Rochdale 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Northampton 40% | Rochdale 57%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Rochdale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 40% | Draw 33% | Rochdale 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Northampton 1.23 / Rochdale 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.653 / def 0.883 | Rochdale attack 0.980 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Northampton (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Rochdale xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Rochdale kick off?
Northampton vs Rochdale is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Sixfields Stadium.
Where is Northampton vs Rochdale being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Rochdale part of?
Northampton vs Rochdale is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Rochdale?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 40% chance of winning, Rochdale a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Rochdale?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Northampton and Rochdale will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Rochdale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Rochdale?
Record (4 meetings): Northampton 1W | Draws 1 | Rochdale 2W.
What form are Northampton and Rochdale in?
Northampton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Rochdale (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Northampton's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Rochdale's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Rochdale's attack (0.98x) against Northampton's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 12/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
40%
2.51
33%
3.06
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.22
0.99
Rochdale xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Rochdale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Northampton and Rochdale expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Northampton and 0.99 for Rochdale, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Rochdale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Northampton come into this having played 14 games, going 3W 5D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rochdale sit at 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Rochdale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Northampton against 1.07 for Rochdale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Northampton's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Rochdale have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Northampton are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Rochdale are on 1.21 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 14 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Rochdale
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Rochdale in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 games (1.00 PPG), while Rochdale have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Rochdale away?
Northampton's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.14 PPG; Rochdale away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Northampton won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Northampton have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rochdale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Rochdale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Rochdale?
From 4 meetings on record, Northampton have won 1, Rochdale have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Rochdale last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Rochdale 1-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Rochdale?
Rochdale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Northampton see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 29%, Rochdale 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Northampton) and 57% (Rochdale).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Northampton have failed to score in 43% of games; Rochdale in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Rochdale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Rochdale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Northampton's recent matches and 57% of Rochdale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Rochdale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Northampton's recent games and 57% of Rochdale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Rochdale tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Rochdale in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.