Northampton 0-1 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Northampton host Mansfield Town at Sixfields Stadium in League Two, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 18 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Northampton — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Northampton's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Sixfields Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sixfields Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League Two games this season, Mansfield Town have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mansfield Town away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Northampton at 1.70 PPG versus Mansfield Town's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Northampton have won 1, Mansfield Town 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Mansfield Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Mansfield Town trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 40% versus Mansfield Town 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 38% | Mansfield Town 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.24 xG and Mansfield Town 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 1.023 / defence 0.816 | Mansfield Town attack 0.974 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.032 / away 1.152. Data: 46 Northampton games / 46 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 44% | Draw 29% | Mansfield Town 27%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Mansfield Town 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 30% | Mansfield Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 44% | Draw 29% | Mansfield Town 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Northampton 1.24 / Mansfield Town 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 1.023 / def 0.816 | Mansfield Town attack 0.974 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.032 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Northampton (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Mansfield Town xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Northampton vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 18 May 2022 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Mansfield Town?
Northampton 0 - 1 Mansfield Town.
Where is Northampton vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Mansfield Town part of?
Northampton vs Mansfield Town is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 44% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Northampton and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Mansfield Town?
Record (3 meetings): Northampton 1W | Draws 0 | Mansfield Town 2W.
What form are Northampton and Mansfield Town in?
Northampton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Northampton's attack at 1.02x the league average against Mansfield Town's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.45
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.16
0.92
Mansfield Town xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
8%
12.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Northampton and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Northampton and 0.92 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Northampton come into this having played 47 games, going 23W 11D 13L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.70 PPG from 47 outings (23W 11D 13L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.70 PPG, Mansfield Town on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Northampton's home form reads 13W 5D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mansfield Town's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.47 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 23W 11D 13L in their last 47 games (1.70 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 23W 11D 13L in their last 47 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Mansfield Town away?
Northampton's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.91 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Northampton or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Northampton and Mansfield Town runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2026, when Mansfield Town won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Northampton's record when hosting Mansfield Town specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Northampton
1
Draws
5
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Mansfield Town?
From 10 meetings on record, Northampton have won 4, Mansfield Town have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Mansfield Town 4-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 30%, Mansfield Town 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Northampton) and 48% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Mansfield Town in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Northampton's recent matches and 52% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Northampton's recent games and 48% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mansfield Town defy the odds to beat Northampton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Northampton 0-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.24 xG and Mansfield Town 0.92 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Northampton fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 1.02 / defence 0.82 against Mansfield Town attack 0.97 / defence 1.18, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 44% | Draw 29% | Mansfield Town 27%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Mansfield Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 38%, Mansfield Town 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.70 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mansfield Town win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.