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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Newport County cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Tranmere.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newport County beat Tranmere 3-1 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 25, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.49 xG and Tranmere 1.56 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Newport County beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.81 / defence 1.24 against Tranmere attack 1.07 / defence 1.50, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 36% | Draw 24% | Tranmere 40%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Newport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 55%, Tranmere 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Tranmere's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newport County 0.92 PPG, Tranmere 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newport County win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Tranmere (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights