Newport County 2-1 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Harrogate Town at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Newport County face Harrogate Town.

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Match Analysis

Newport County host Harrogate Town at Rodney Parade in League Two (matchday 43). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Newport County — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Newport County at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Harrogate Town stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Harrogate Town away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Newport County at 1.00 PPG versus Harrogate Town's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 9 H2H matches, Newport County have won 5, Harrogate Town 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Newport County 3–0 Harrogate Town — a Newport County win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Newport County trading profile (last 88 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Harrogate Town trading profile (last 88 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newport County 49% versus Harrogate Town 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newport County 56% | Harrogate Town 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 0.97 xG and Harrogate Town 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 0.772 / defence 1.222 | Harrogate Town attack 0.963 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.172. Newport County's attack rating of 0.772 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Newport County's defence rating of 1.222 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Harrogate Town's projected output up. Data: built from Newport County's last 88 games and Harrogate Town's last 88.

Result probabilities: Newport County 26% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 46%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 3.80 | Draw 3.67 | Harrogate Town 2.16. Harrogate Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Harrogate Town as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Harrogate Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Newport County 40% (last 10 home games) | Harrogate Town 40% (last 10 away games).

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