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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bromley edge out Newport County 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bromley beat Newport County 0-1 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 0.91 xG and Bromley 1.66 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Newport County fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.91 / defence 1.25 against Bromley attack 1.11 / defence 0.82, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 21% | Draw 24% | Bromley 55%, with Bromley to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 57%, Bromley 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bromley's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Bromley arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Bromley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights