Newport County vs Accrington ST – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Newport County at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newport County vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 42 sees Accrington ST travel to Rodney Parade to take on Newport County. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Newport County stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Newport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newport County's home record at Rodney Parade: 6W 3D 1L from 10 League Two appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Newport County are significantly better at Rodney Parade than their overall form suggests.
Accrington ST — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Accrington ST have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Newport County 1.20 PPG, Accrington ST 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Newport County register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Accrington ST in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Newport County, 4 for Accrington ST and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Newport County trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Accrington ST trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newport County 55% versus Accrington ST 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newport County 55% | Accrington ST 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 1.30 xG and Accrington ST 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 1.000 / defence 0.948 | Accrington ST attack 0.874 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.061. Data: 58 Newport County games / 58 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newport County 44% | Draw 33% | Accrington ST 23%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Accrington ST 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Newport County as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Newport County 60% | Accrington ST 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newport County vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Rodney Parade • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newport County 44% | Draw 33% | Accrington ST 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Newport County 1.30 / Accrington ST 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Newport County attack 1.000 / def 0.948 | Accrington ST attack 0.874 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Newport County (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Newport County xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Accrington ST xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newport County vs Accrington ST kick off?
Newport County vs Accrington ST is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at Rodney Parade.
Where is Newport County vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Rodney Parade.
What competition is Newport County vs Accrington ST part of?
Newport County vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Newport County vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Newport County a 44% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Newport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Newport County and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Newport County vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Accrington ST?
Record (7 meetings): Newport County 2W | Draws 1 | Accrington ST 4W.
What form are Newport County and Accrington ST in?
Newport County (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Newport County's attack at 1.00x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Newport County's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newport County Win
44%
2.27
33%
3.03
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Newport County xG
Total xG
2.18
0.88
Accrington ST xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
6%
15.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newport County vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Newport County and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Newport County and 0.88 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Newport County vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Newport County have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 15W 13D 30L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Newport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Accrington ST's form line: 17W 17D 24L from 58 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newport County on 1.00 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Newport County have posted 1.17 PPG from 29 outings (9W 7D 13L).
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 5W 9D 15L from 29 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Newport County are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.10 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 58 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newport County
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newport County and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Newport County have gone 15W 13D 30L in their last 58 games (1.00 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 17W 17D 24L in their last 58 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newport County at home or Accrington ST away?
Newport County's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newport County at home: 1.17 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Newport County and Accrington ST runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2025, when Accrington ST won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Newport County's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Newport County
1
Draws
4
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Accrington ST?
From 7 meetings on record, Newport County have won 2, Accrington ST have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Newport County and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Accrington ST 0-0 Newport County.
Who has won more matches between Newport County and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Newport County see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newport County 55%, Accrington ST 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Newport County) and 38% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Newport County have failed to score in 31% of games; Accrington ST in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newport County home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newport County play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Newport County's recent matches and 45% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newport County vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Newport County's recent games and 38% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Newport County and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Newport County have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.