Newport County 3-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newport County at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newport County vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Accrington ST travel to Rodney Parade to take on Newport County. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Newport County stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 League Two matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Newport County have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Newport County's home record at Rodney Parade: 4W 0D 6L from 10 League Two appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Newport County are significantly better at Rodney Parade than their overall form suggests.
Accrington ST — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Accrington ST have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League Two this season, Accrington ST have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Accrington ST are 0.50 PPG ahead (0.80 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Newport County register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Accrington ST in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Newport County, 2 for Accrington ST and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with Accrington ST winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Newport County trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Accrington ST trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newport County 56% versus Accrington ST 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newport County 62% | Accrington ST 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 2.18 xG and Accrington ST 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 1.128 / defence 1.059 | Accrington ST attack 0.966 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.314. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Newport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Newport County games / 48 Accrington ST games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Newport County 56% | Draw 20% | Accrington ST 23%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Accrington ST 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Newport County (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Newport County as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Accrington ST (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Newport County 60% | Accrington ST 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (48 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newport County vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Rodney Parade • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newport County 56% | Draw 20% | Accrington ST 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Newport County 2.18 / Accrington ST 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Newport County attack 1.128 / def 1.059 | Accrington ST attack 0.966 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Newport County (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Newport County xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Accrington ST xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newport County vs Accrington ST kick off?
Newport County vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Rodney Parade.
What was the final score in Newport County vs Accrington ST?
Newport County 3 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Newport County vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Rodney Parade.
What competition is Newport County vs Accrington ST part of?
Newport County vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Newport County vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Newport County a 56% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 23% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Newport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Newport County and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Newport County vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Accrington ST?
Record (2 meetings): Newport County 0W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 2W.
What form are Newport County and Accrington ST in?
Newport County (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Newport County's attack at 1.13x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Newport County's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (48/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newport County Win
56%
1.77
20%
4.90
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Newport County xG
Total xG
3.53
1.34
Accrington ST xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
11%
8.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
3%
38.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newport County vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Newport County and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Newport County and 1.34 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Newport County vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Newport County have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 17W 7D 24L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Newport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Accrington ST's form line: 16W 10D 22L from 48 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Accrington ST, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newport County on 1.21 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Newport County have posted 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L).
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 6W 4D 14L from 24 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Newport County are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.40 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Accrington ST in 60%.
Last 48 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newport County
Early Season
Accrington ST
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newport County and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Newport County have gone 17W 7D 24L in their last 48 games (1.21 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 16W 10D 22L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newport County at home or Accrington ST away?
Newport County's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newport County at home: 1.50 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Newport County and Accrington ST runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2025, when Accrington ST won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Newport County's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Newport County
0
Draws
4
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Accrington ST?
From 6 meetings on record, Newport County have won 2, Accrington ST have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Newport County and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Newport County 1-4 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Newport County and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Newport County at 71%, Accrington ST at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Newport County and 67% for Accrington ST. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newport County home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newport County play Accrington ST?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Newport County's games and 71% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Newport County vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Newport County's matches and 67% of Accrington ST's.
Do Newport County and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Newport County have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Newport County cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newport County beat Accrington ST 3-1 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 3, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 2.18 xG and Accrington ST 1.34 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Newport County beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 1.13 / defence 1.06 against Accrington ST attack 0.97 / defence 1.31, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Newport County 56% | Draw 20% | Accrington ST 23%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 62%, Accrington ST 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newport County's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newport County 1.21 PPG, Accrington ST 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newport County win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.