Newport County 1-3 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newport County at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newport County vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Accrington ST travel to Rodney Parade to take on Newport County. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 9 April 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Newport County stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 League Two matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Newport County's home record at Rodney Parade: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Newport County are significantly better at Rodney Parade than their overall form suggests.
Accrington ST — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League Two this season, Accrington ST have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Newport County 0.90 PPG, Accrington ST 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Newport County register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Accrington ST in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Newport County, 1 for Accrington ST and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with Accrington ST winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Newport County trading profile (87 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Accrington ST trading profile (87 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newport County 53% versus Accrington ST 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newport County 51% | Accrington ST 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 1.86 xG and Accrington ST 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 1.034 / defence 1.194 | Accrington ST attack 0.866 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.297. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Newport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 88 Newport County games / 41 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newport County 49% | Draw 23% | Accrington ST 27%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Accrington ST 3.70. Newport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Newport County as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Newport County 60% | Accrington ST 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newport County vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Rodney Parade • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newport County 49% | Draw 23% | Accrington ST 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Newport County 1.86 / Accrington ST 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Newport County attack 1.034 / def 1.194 | Accrington ST attack 0.866 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Newport County (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Newport County xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Accrington ST xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newport County vs Accrington ST kick off?
Newport County vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 9 April 2024 at Rodney Parade.
What was the final score in Newport County vs Accrington ST?
Newport County 1 - 3 Accrington ST.
Where is Newport County vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Rodney Parade.
What competition is Newport County vs Accrington ST part of?
Newport County vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Newport County vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Newport County a 49% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Newport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Newport County and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Newport County vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Accrington ST?
Record (1 meetings): Newport County 0W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 1W.
What form are Newport County and Accrington ST in?
Newport County (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Newport County's attack at 1.03x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Newport County's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 88/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newport County Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.29
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Newport County xG
Total xG
3.20
1.34
Accrington ST xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
16%
6.43
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
4%
23.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newport County vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Newport County and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Newport County and 1.34 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Newport County vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 87 outings, Newport County have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 30W 21D 36L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Accrington ST's form line: 25W 20D 42L from 87 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newport County on 1.28 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Newport County have posted 1.38 PPG from 42 outings (15W 13D 14L).
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 10W 10D 22L from 42 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Newport County are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.07 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 87 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newport County
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newport County and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Newport County have gone 30W 21D 36L in their last 87 games (1.28 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 25W 20D 42L in their last 87 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newport County at home or Accrington ST away?
Newport County's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newport County at home: 1.38 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Newport County and Accrington ST runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2025, when Accrington ST won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Newport County's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Newport County
0
Draws
4
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Accrington ST?
From 6 meetings on record, Newport County have won 2, Accrington ST have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Newport County and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Newport County 1-4 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Newport County and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newport County 62%, Accrington ST 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Newport County) and 50% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newport County home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newport County play Accrington ST?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Newport County's games and 50% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Newport County vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Newport County's recent games and 50% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Newport County and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Newport County have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Accrington ST cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Newport County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Newport County 1-3 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.86 xG and Accrington ST 1.34 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Newport County fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Accrington ST outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 1.03 / defence 1.19 against Accrington ST attack 0.87 / defence 1.28, drawn from 88/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newport County 49% | Draw 23% | Accrington ST 27%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Accrington ST win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 51%, Accrington ST 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newport County's trading profile (87 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (87 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newport County 1.28 PPG, Accrington ST 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.