Morecambe 0-3 Grimsby – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Grimsby at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Morecambe vs Grimsby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Grimsby make the trip to Mazuma Mobile Stadium to face Morecambe in League Two (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Morecambe have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Morecambe's home record over their last 10 home games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 1.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Grimsby (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Grimsby's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Grimsby are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Morecambe, 1 for Grimsby and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Feb 2024, ended Morecambe 1–1 Grimsby — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Morecambe half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Grimsby half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Morecambe 61% and Grimsby 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Morecambe 62% | Grimsby 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Morecambe 0.96 xG and Grimsby 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Morecambe attack 0.882 / defence 1.370 | Grimsby attack 0.928 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.242. Morecambe's defence rating of 1.370 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Grimsby's projected output up. Data: built from Morecambe's last 64 games and Grimsby's last 64.
Result probabilities: Morecambe 22% | Draw 27% | Grimsby 51%. Fair-value odds: Morecambe 4.50 | Draw 3.75 | Grimsby 1.96. Grimsby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grimsby at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grimsby if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Morecambe 60% (last 10 home games) | Grimsby 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Morecambe vs Grimsby | Competition: League Two, matchday 19 | Venue: Mazuma Mobile Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Morecambe 22% | Draw 27% | Grimsby 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Morecambe 0.96 / Grimsby 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Morecambe attack 0.882 / def 1.370 | Grimsby attack 0.928 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Grimsby (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Morecambe xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Grimsby xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Morecambe vs Grimsby FAQs
What time does Morecambe vs Grimsby kick off?
Morecambe vs Grimsby kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Mazuma Mobile Stadium.
What was the final score in Morecambe vs Grimsby?
Morecambe 0 - 3 Grimsby.
Where is Morecambe vs Grimsby being played?
The match is being played at Mazuma Mobile Stadium.
What competition is Morecambe vs Grimsby part of?
Morecambe vs Grimsby is a League Two fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Morecambe vs Grimsby?
Our statistical model gives Morecambe a 22% chance of winning, Grimsby a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Grimsby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Morecambe vs Grimsby?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Morecambe and Grimsby will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Morecambe vs Grimsby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Morecambe's attack rating (0.88) and Grimsby's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grimsby's attack (0.93x) against Morecambe's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from Morecambe's last 64 games and Grimsby's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grimsby Win
22%
4.50
27%
3.75
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Morecambe xG
Total xG
2.54
1.58
Grimsby xG
4.50
22%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
5%
21.79
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.5 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Morecambe vs Grimsby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Morecambe vs Grimsby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Morecambe and Grimsby expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Morecambe and 1.58 for Grimsby, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Morecambe vs Grimsby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Morecambe come into this having played 64 games, going 20W 15D 29L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Grimsby sit at 1.20 PPG from 64 outings (20W 17D 27L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Morecambe against 1.20 for Grimsby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Morecambe's home form reads 8W 10D 13L across their last 31 home games, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Grimsby have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 31 away games (7W 12D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Morecambe are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Grimsby are on 1.27 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Morecambe have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Morecambe
Blended
Grimsby
Blended
Morecambe (Home) vs Grimsby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Morecambe
Blended
Grimsby
Blended
❓ Morecambe vs Grimsby Form FAQs
What form are Morecambe and Grimsby in coming into this match?
Morecambe have gone 20W 15D 29L in their last 64 games (1.17 PPG), while Grimsby have gone 20W 17D 27L in their last 64 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Morecambe at home or Grimsby away?
Morecambe's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Morecambe at home: 1.10 PPG; Grimsby away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Morecambe and Grimsby, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Grimsby have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grimsby won Morecambe 0-3 Grimsby on 7 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Morecambe have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Grimsby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Morecambe
1
Draws
3
Grimsby
Recent Meetings
❓ Morecambe vs Grimsby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Grimsby?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Morecambe have won 0, Grimsby have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Morecambe and Grimsby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Grimsby 3-1 Morecambe.
Who has won more matches between Morecambe and Grimsby?
Grimsby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Morecambe 61%, Grimsby 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Morecambe) and 39% (Grimsby).
On the defensive side: Grimsby in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Morecambe home games / Grimsby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Morecambe vs Grimsby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Morecambe and Grimsby matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Morecambe's games and 52% of Grimsby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Morecambe and Grimsby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Morecambe's recent games and 39% of Grimsby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Morecambe and Grimsby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Morecambe's recent matches and 74% of Grimsby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Grimsby run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Morecambe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grimsby beat Morecambe 0-3 at Mazuma Mobile Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 0.96 xG and Grimsby 1.58 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Morecambe fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Grimsby outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 0.88 / defence 1.37 against Grimsby attack 0.93 / defence 0.86, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Morecambe 22% | Draw 27% | Grimsby 51%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 62%, Grimsby 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Morecambe's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grimsby's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Morecambe 1.17 PPG, Grimsby 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grimsby win broke the near-deadlock. Morecambe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grimsby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League Two fixtures — matchday 19
All League Two fixtures →
More UK football predictions →