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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Doncaster edge out Morecambe 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Morecambe 0-1 at Mazuma Mobile Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 1.39 xG and Doncaster 1.72 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Morecambe fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 0.96 / defence 1.26 against Doncaster attack 1.27 / defence 1.09, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Morecambe 31% | Draw 25% | Doncaster 45%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 56%, Doncaster 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Morecambe's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Doncaster's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Morecambe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Doncaster (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights