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Prediction vindicated as Crewe edge out Morecambe 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Morecambe 0-1 at Mazuma Mobile Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 0.74 xG and Crewe 1.33 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 0.75 / defence 1.34 against Crewe attack 0.84 / defence 0.75, drawn from 70/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Morecambe 20% | Draw 30% | Crewe 50%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 59%, Crewe 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Morecambe's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Crewe's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Crewe arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Morecambe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights