🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Milton Keynes Dons 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Milton Keynes Dons 0-1 at Stadium MK, Regular Season - 25, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Milton Keynes Dons 1.07 xG and Salford City 1.13 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Milton Keynes Dons fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.01 / defence 0.96 against Salford City attack 0.98 / defence 0.79, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Milton Keynes Dons 32% | Draw 32% | Salford City 35%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Milton Keynes Dons 62%, Salford City 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Milton Keynes Dons's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Salford City's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Milton Keynes Dons 1.58 PPG, Salford City 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Milton Keynes Dons (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights