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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Milton Keynes Dons run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Harrogate Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Milton Keynes Dons beat Harrogate Town 4-1 at Stadium MK, Regular Season - 36, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Milton Keynes Dons 1.34 xG and Harrogate Town 0.68 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Milton Keynes Dons beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.13 / defence 0.81 against Harrogate Town attack 0.73 / defence 0.96, drawn from 80/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Milton Keynes Dons 53% | Draw 28% | Harrogate Town 19%, with Milton Keynes Dons to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Milton Keynes Dons 51%, Harrogate Town 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Milton Keynes Dons's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Milton Keynes Dons arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Milton Keynes Dons (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights