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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Milton Keynes Dons edge out Harrogate Town 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Milton Keynes Dons beat Harrogate Town 2-1 at Stadium MK, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Milton Keynes Dons 1.17 xG and Harrogate Town 0.85 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Milton Keynes Dons beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Milton Keynes Dons attack 0.92 / defence 0.90 against Harrogate Town attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 72/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Milton Keynes Dons 42% | Draw 32% | Harrogate Town 26%, with Milton Keynes Dons to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Milton Keynes Dons 62%, Harrogate Town 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Milton Keynes Dons's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Milton Keynes Dons 1.53 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Milton Keynes Dons win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights