Mansfield Town 0-1 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mansfield Town vs Crewe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Crewe travel to One Call Stadium to take on Mansfield Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 January 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mansfield Town stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mansfield Town's home record at One Call Stadium: 5W 5D 0L from 10 League Two appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at One Call Stadium.
Crewe — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crewe's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Mansfield Town carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mansfield Town, 0 for Crewe and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Mansfield Town in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Crewe in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 60% versus Crewe 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 51% | Crewe 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.59 xG and Crewe 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 0.961 / defence 0.710 | Crewe attack 1.002 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.298. Mansfield Town's defence rating of 0.710 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 70 Mansfield Town games / 71 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 53% | Draw 26% | Crewe 21%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Crewe 4.76. Mansfield Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mansfield Town are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Mansfield Town 40% | Crewe 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 53% | Draw 26% | Crewe 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Mansfield Town 1.59 / Crewe 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 0.961 / def 0.710 | Crewe attack 1.002 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Crewe xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Crewe kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 January 2024 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Crewe?
Mansfield Town 0 - 1 Crewe.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Crewe part of?
Mansfield Town vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 53% chance of winning, Crewe a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mansfield Town and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Crewe?
Record (3 meetings): Mansfield Town 1W | Draws 2 | Crewe 0W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Crewe in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Crewe (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mansfield Town's attack rating (0.96) and Crewe's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Mansfield Town's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.83
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.51
0.92
Crewe xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
4%
22.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 0.92 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Mansfield Town have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 34W 22D 14L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crewe's form line: 24W 24D 22L from 70 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mansfield Town on 1.77 PPG, Crewe on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mansfield Town have posted 1.71 PPG from 34 outings (15W 13D 6L).
On the road, Crewe have gone 5W 15D 14L from 34 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crewe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.33 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 70 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Blended
Crewe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Crewe in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 34W 22D 14L in their last 70 games (1.77 PPG), while Crewe have gone 24W 24D 22L in their last 70 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Crewe away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.71 PPG; Crewe away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Crewe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Crewe in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mansfield Town and Crewe runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mansfield Town's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mansfield Town
2
Draws
1
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Crewe?
From 4 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 1, Crewe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2024, when Mansfield Town 0-1 Crewe.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 59%, Crewe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mansfield Town) and 44% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Crewe in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 50% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mansfield Town vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 44% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Crewe tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Crewe in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crewe defy the odds to beat Mansfield Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Mansfield Town 0-1 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.59 xG and Crewe 0.92 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mansfield Town fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.96 / defence 0.71 against Crewe attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 70/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 53% | Draw 26% | Crewe 21%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Crewe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 51%, Crewe 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Crewe's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.77 PPG, Crewe 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.