Hartlepool 1-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hartlepool at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hartlepool vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stevenage make the trip to The Suit Direct Stadium to face Hartlepool in League Two, Regular Season - 41. The match kicks off on Monday 10 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Hartlepool (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at The Suit Direct Stadium, Hartlepool have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stevenage have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Stevenage's away record: 1W 7D 2L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Hartlepool, 1.20 for Stevenage — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hartlepool lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Stevenage winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Hartlepool half-time and goal-timing data (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hartlepool 56% versus Stevenage 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hartlepool 49% | Stevenage 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hartlepool 1.28 xG and Stevenage 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hartlepool attack 1.097 / defence 1.309 | Stevenage attack 0.892 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.063. Data: 86 Hartlepool games / 85 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hartlepool 36% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 34%. Fair-value odds: Hartlepool 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Stevenage 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hartlepool at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hartlepool if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Hartlepool 80% | Stevenage 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hartlepool vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: The Suit Direct Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hartlepool 36% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Hartlepool 1.28 / Stevenage 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Hartlepool attack 1.097 / def 1.309 | Stevenage attack 0.892 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Hartlepool (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Hartlepool xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Stevenage xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hartlepool vs Stevenage kick off?
Hartlepool vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What was the final score in Hartlepool vs Stevenage?
Hartlepool 1 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Hartlepool vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What competition is Hartlepool vs Stevenage part of?
Hartlepool vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Hartlepool vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Hartlepool a 36% chance of winning, Stevenage a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hartlepool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hartlepool and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Hartlepool vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Stevenage?
Record (3 meetings): Hartlepool 0W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 2W.
What form are Hartlepool and Stevenage in?
Hartlepool (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hartlepool's attack at 1.10x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.89x) against Hartlepool's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 86/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hartlepool Win
36%
2.77
30%
3.34
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Hartlepool xG
Total xG
2.52
1.24
Stevenage xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
9%
10.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hartlepool vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hartlepool and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Hartlepool and 1.24 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Hartlepool vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 85 outings, Hartlepool have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 21W 26D 38L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Stevenage's form line: 30W 26D 29L from 85 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Hartlepool against 1.36 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hartlepool have posted 1.24 PPG from 42 outings (12W 16D 14L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 7W 18D 17L from 42 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hartlepool are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.15 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 85 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hartlepool
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hartlepool and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Hartlepool have gone 21W 26D 38L in their last 85 games (1.05 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 30W 26D 29L in their last 85 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hartlepool at home or Stevenage away?
Hartlepool's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hartlepool at home: 1.24 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Hartlepool or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hartlepool have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Stevenage in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hartlepool have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hartlepool
2
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Stevenage?
From 4 meetings on record, Hartlepool have won 0, Stevenage have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hartlepool and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Hartlepool 1-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Hartlepool and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hartlepool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hartlepool 57%, Stevenage 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hartlepool) and 38% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Hartlepool have failed to score in 33% of games; Stevenage in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hartlepool home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hartlepool play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Hartlepool's recent matches and 48% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hartlepool vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hartlepool's recent games and 38% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hartlepool and Stevenage tend to score early?
Hartlepool have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hartlepool and Stevenage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hartlepool and Stevenage finished level at 1-1 at The Suit Direct Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hartlepool 1.28 xG and Stevenage 1.24 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hartlepool attack 1.10 / defence 1.31 against Stevenage attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 86/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hartlepool 36% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 34%, with Hartlepool to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hartlepool 49%, Stevenage 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hartlepool's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hartlepool 1.05 PPG, Stevenage 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.