Hartlepool 0-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hartlepool at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hartlepool vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 2 as Hartlepool welcome AFC Wimbledon to The Suit Direct Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hartlepool — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Hartlepool have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hartlepool have posted 2W 3D 5L at The Suit Direct Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Hartlepool are significantly better at The Suit Direct Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Wimbledon stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. AFC Wimbledon have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.30 PPG (Hartlepool) versus 0.70 (AFC Wimbledon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Hartlepool in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hartlepool 47% versus AFC Wimbledon 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hartlepool 43% | AFC Wimbledon 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hartlepool 1.30 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hartlepool attack 0.840 / defence 1.082 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.077. Data: 47 Hartlepool games / 1 AFC Wimbledon games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hartlepool 43% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 28%. Fair-value odds: Hartlepool 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | AFC Wimbledon 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hartlepool at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hartlepool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hartlepool 30% | AFC Wimbledon 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hartlepool vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: The Suit Direct Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hartlepool 43% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Hartlepool 1.30 / AFC Wimbledon 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Hartlepool attack 0.840 / def 1.082 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Hartlepool (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Hartlepool xG
Expected Goals
0.99
AFC Wimbledon xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hartlepool vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Hartlepool vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What was the final score in Hartlepool vs AFC Wimbledon?
Hartlepool 0 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Hartlepool vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What competition is Hartlepool vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Hartlepool vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Hartlepool vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Hartlepool a 43% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hartlepool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hartlepool and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Hartlepool vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and AFC Wimbledon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hartlepool and AFC Wimbledon in?
Hartlepool (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hartlepool's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Hartlepool's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (47/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hartlepool Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.52
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Hartlepool xG
Total xG
2.29
0.99
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hartlepool vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Hartlepool and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Hartlepool and 0.99 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Hartlepool vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Hartlepool have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 14W 12D 21L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hartlepool, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AFC Wimbledon's form line: 7W 19D 21L from 47 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hartlepool on 1.15 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hartlepool have posted 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (9W 7D 7L).
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 4W 5D 14L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hartlepool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hartlepool are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.09 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 47 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hartlepool
Early Season
AFC Wimbledon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hartlepool and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Hartlepool have gone 14W 12D 21L in their last 47 games (1.15 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 7W 19D 21L in their last 47 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hartlepool at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Hartlepool's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hartlepool at home: 1.48 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hartlepool
2
Draws
0
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and AFC Wimbledon?
From 2 meetings on record, Hartlepool have won 0, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hartlepool and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when AFC Wimbledon 2-2 Hartlepool.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hartlepool see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hartlepool 48%, AFC Wimbledon 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Hartlepool) and 56% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Hartlepool keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Hartlepool have failed to score in 35% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hartlepool home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hartlepool play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Hartlepool's recent matches and 52% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hartlepool vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Hartlepool's recent games and 56% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hartlepool and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Hartlepool have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hartlepool's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Suit Direct Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Hartlepool and AFC Wimbledon drew 0-0 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hartlepool 1.30 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.99 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hartlepool fell 1.3 short of their projected output. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hartlepool attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hartlepool 43% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 28%, with Hartlepool to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hartlepool 43%, AFC Wimbledon 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hartlepool's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hartlepool 1.15 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hartlepool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.