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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Harrogate Town edge out Tranmere 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town beat Tranmere 3-2 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.29 xG and Tranmere 0.78 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Harrogate Town beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tranmere outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.84 / defence 1.01 against Tranmere attack 0.72 / defence 1.22, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 49% | Draw 29% | Tranmere 22%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 44%, Tranmere 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Tranmere's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.24 PPG, Tranmere 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Harrogate Town win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Tranmere (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights