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Prediction vindicated as Swindon Town edge out Harrogate Town 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swindon Town beat Harrogate Town 0-1 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.69 xG and Swindon Town 1.98 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Swindon Town landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.57 / defence 1.46 against Swindon Town attack 1.10 / defence 0.95, drawn from 75/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 12% | Draw 20% | Swindon Town 68%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 39%, Swindon Town 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Swindon Town's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Swindon Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights