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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Salford City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Harrogate Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Harrogate Town 0-2 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.90 xG and Salford City 1.47 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Harrogate Town fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.78 / defence 1.30 against Salford City attack 0.97 / defence 0.87, drawn from 69/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 22% | Draw 29% | Salford City 49%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 50%, Salford City 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Salford City's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.21 PPG, Salford City 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights