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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Oldham edge out Harrogate Town 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oldham beat Harrogate Town 0-1 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.96 xG and Oldham 1.12 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Harrogate Town fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.83 / defence 1.21 against Oldham attack 0.78 / defence 0.85, drawn from 60/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 31% | Draw 30% | Oldham 39%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 50%, Oldham 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Oldham's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.00 PPG, Oldham 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oldham win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights