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Notts County cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Harrogate Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Harrogate Town 0-2 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.73 xG and Notts County 1.58 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.61 / defence 1.18 against Notts County attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 17% | Draw 25% | Notts County 58%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 38%, Notts County 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Notts County's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Notts County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights