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Dominant Newport County run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Harrogate Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newport County beat Harrogate Town 0-3 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.39 xG and Newport County 1.16 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Harrogate Town fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Newport County outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.09 against Newport County attack 0.91 / defence 1.11, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 42% | Draw 26% | Newport County 31%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Newport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 42%, Newport County 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Newport County's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.14 PPG, Newport County 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newport County win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Newport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights