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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Harrogate Town and Grimsby share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town and Grimsby finished level at 3-3 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.35 xG and Grimsby 1.21 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Harrogate Town beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grimsby outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 1.07 / defence 1.07 against Grimsby attack 1.09 / defence 1.02, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 39% | Draw 29% | Grimsby 33%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 40%, Grimsby 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Grimsby's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.19 PPG, Grimsby 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grimsby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights