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Dominant Gillingham run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Harrogate Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gillingham beat Harrogate Town 0-3 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.83 xG and Gillingham 1.52 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Harrogate Town fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Gillingham outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.60 / defence 1.34 against Gillingham attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 21% | Draw 26% | Gillingham 54%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 38%, Gillingham 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Gillingham's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.00 PPG, Gillingham 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gillingham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights