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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fleetwood Town edge out Harrogate Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fleetwood Town beat Harrogate Town 1-2 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.64 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.40 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.54 / defence 1.42 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 73/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 17% | Draw 28% | Fleetwood Town 55%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 39%, Fleetwood Town 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 0.99 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fleetwood Town win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights