🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Harrogate Town and Crewe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Harrogate Town and Crewe drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.70 xG and Crewe 1.11 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.75 / defence 1.15 against Crewe attack 0.86 / defence 0.72, drawn from 75/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 22% | Draw 34% | Crewe 44%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 47%, Crewe 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Crewe's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.23 PPG, Crewe 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights