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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Harrogate Town 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town beat Harrogate Town 0-1 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.79 xG and Crawley Town 1.02 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Harrogate Town fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 1.17 / defence 1.14 against Crawley Town attack 0.78 / defence 1.29, drawn from 52/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 55% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 21%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Crawley Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 40%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Crawley Town's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.17 PPG, Crawley Town 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights