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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Harrogate Town defy the odds to beat Colchester 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town beat Colchester 1-0 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.75 xG and Colchester 1.27 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Colchester landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.65 / defence 1.32 against Colchester attack 0.80 / defence 0.93, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 22% | Draw 29% | Colchester 49%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Harrogate Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 39%, Colchester 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Colchester's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Colchester arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Harrogate Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights