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Stalemate at Harrogate Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Harrogate Town and Colchester drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.95 xG and Colchester 1.22 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Harrogate Town fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Colchester landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.80 / defence 1.18 against Colchester attack 0.87 / defence 0.91, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 28% | Draw 31% | Colchester 41%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 48%, Colchester 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Colchester's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.24 PPG, Colchester 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights