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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Harrogate Town defy the odds to beat Cambridge United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town beat Cambridge United 2-1 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.54 xG and Cambridge United 1.65 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Harrogate Town beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.54 / defence 1.42 against Cambridge United attack 0.97 / defence 0.79, drawn from 76/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 12% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 65%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Harrogate Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 38%, Cambridge United 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Cambridge United's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 0.95 PPG, Cambridge United 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Harrogate Town win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights