🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Harrogate Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town and Bromley finished level at 0-0 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.68 xG and Bromley 2.07 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bromley landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.65 / defence 1.38 against Bromley attack 1.28 / defence 0.84, drawn from 79/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 11% | Draw 19% | Bromley 70%, with Bromley to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 38%, Bromley 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bromley's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Bromley arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Bromley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights