🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Bristol Rovers edge out Harrogate Town 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol Rovers beat Harrogate Town 2-3 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.80 xG and Bristol Rovers 1.16 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Harrogate Town beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bristol Rovers outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.58 / defence 1.23 against Bristol Rovers attack 0.81 / defence 1.15, drawn from 87/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 25% | Draw 31% | Bristol Rovers 44%, with Bristol Rovers to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 38%, Bristol Rovers 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 0.99 PPG, Bristol Rovers 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.49 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights