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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Harrogate Town edge out Barrow 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town beat Barrow 1-0 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.38 xG and Barrow 1.16 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Barrow landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 1.20 / defence 1.23 against Barrow attack 0.86 / defence 0.89, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 41% | Draw 29% | Barrow 30%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 41%, Barrow 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Barrow's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.18 PPG, Barrow 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Harrogate Town win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights