Harrogate Town 0-3 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Harrogate Town face AFC Wimbledon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Harrogate Town host AFC Wimbledon at Exercise Stadium in League Two (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Harrogate Town — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Harrogate Town have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, AFC Wimbledon stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, AFC Wimbledon have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Harrogate Town at 1.10 PPG versus AFC Wimbledon's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Harrogate Town have won 0, AFC Wimbledon 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Mar 2024, ended Harrogate Town 1–1 AFC Wimbledon — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Harrogate Town trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 45% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Harrogate Town 52% versus AFC Wimbledon 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Harrogate Town 49% | AFC Wimbledon 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Harrogate Town 1.10 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Harrogate Town attack 0.934 / defence 1.099 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.011 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.242. Data: built from Harrogate Town's last 64 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 63.
Result probabilities: Harrogate Town 29% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 43%. Fair-value odds: Harrogate Town 3.43 | Draw 3.53 | AFC Wimbledon 2.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Harrogate Town 50% (last 10 home games) | AFC Wimbledon 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, matchday 19 | Venue: Exercise Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Harrogate Town 29% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Harrogate Town 1.10 / AFC Wimbledon 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Harrogate Town attack 0.934 / def 1.099 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.011 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Harrogate Town xG
Expected Goals
1.38
AFC Wimbledon xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon FAQs
What time does Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Exercise Stadium.
What was the final score in Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Harrogate Town 0 - 3 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Exercise Stadium.
What competition is Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon is a League Two fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Harrogate Town a 29% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Harrogate Town's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Harrogate Town's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Harrogate Town's last 64 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
29%
3.43
28%
3.53
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Harrogate Town xG
Total xG
2.48
1.38
AFC Wimbledon xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Harrogate Town and 1.38 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Harrogate Town come into this having played 63 games, going 22W 15D 26L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.46 PPG from 63 outings (25W 17D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Harrogate Town on 1.29 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Harrogate Town's home form reads 13W 3D 15L across their last 31 home games, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 1.16 points per game from their last 31 away games (9W 9D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Harrogate Town are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.44 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Harrogate Town
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Harrogate Town (Home) vs AFC Wimbledon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Harrogate Town
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon Form FAQs
What form are Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Harrogate Town have gone 22W 15D 26L in their last 63 games (1.29 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 25W 17D 21L in their last 63 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Harrogate Town at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Harrogate Town's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Harrogate Town at home: 1.35 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Harrogate Town or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Harrogate Town have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
AFC Wimbledon have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Dec 2024, when AFC Wimbledon won Harrogate Town 0-3 AFC Wimbledon.
Harrogate Town's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Harrogate Town
2
Draws
4
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Harrogate Town have won 0, AFC Wimbledon have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Harrogate Town 55%, AFC Wimbledon 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Harrogate Town) and 32% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon in 39%; Harrogate Town have failed to score in 26% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Harrogate Town home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Harrogate Town's recent matches and 36% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Harrogate Town's recent games and 32% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Harrogate Town's recent matches and 45% of AFC Wimbledon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AFC Wimbledon run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Harrogate Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Harrogate Town 0-3 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.10 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.38 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Harrogate Town fell 1.1 short of their projected output. AFC Wimbledon outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.01 / defence 0.93, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 29% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 43%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 49%, AFC Wimbledon 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Harrogate Town's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.29 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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