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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Accrington ST cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Harrogate Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Accrington ST beat Harrogate Town 0-2 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.04 xG and Accrington ST 1.31 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Harrogate Town fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.71 / defence 1.20 against Accrington ST attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 29% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 43%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 41%, Accrington ST 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Accrington ST's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.08 PPG, Accrington ST 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights